Major political, economic and global events were followed by sharp increases in psychological distress across the UK, according to a study published in BMJ Mental Health.
Researchers led by Dr Annie Jeffery of University College London analysed annual data from 87,857 people aged 16 and older. The information came from the UK Household Longitudinal Study and covered 2009 to 2024.
The team examined five major “systemic shocks”, including the Brexit referendum, the first and second Covid lockdowns, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Liz Truss’s September 2022 mini-budget.
Distress rose after several events
The researchers found that all five events were followed by immediate and serious damage to overall mental wellbeing. The Brexit referendum in June 2016 and the first Covid lockdown in March 2020 were associated with the largest changes.
Psychological distress increased immediately after the referendum and the first lockdown. Following the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the mini-budget, increases were more gradual, building over several months.
The study used the 12-item General Health Questionnaire, or GHQ-12, to assess psychological distress. The researchers said the change after the Brexit vote was equivalent to around 120,000 additional people seeking help from a GP for depression. The increase after the first Covid lockdown was larger, and was estimated to be equivalent to about 900,000 more people visiting a family doctor with symptoms of depression.
The estimates are comparisons based on changes in the screening measure, rather than a count of people newly diagnosed with depression.
The researchers also estimated that Russia’s invasion was associated with around 15,000 additional people a month seeking GP help for depression. After the mini-budget, the estimated equivalent was about 23,000 more people a month.
A longer decline
The analysis found that psychological distress had already been increasing to a clinically significant degree from 2009, with the pace of increase accelerating from 2015 onwards.
Distress following the five shocks remained elevated and did not return to the lower levels seen before 2016. Prof Jeffery said major government decisions and global events can have substantial effects on people’s mental health.
Andy Bell of the Centre for Mental Health said the evidence of Covid’s impact was clear, while the other shocks could affect wellbeing directly or through consequences such as the cost of living crisis. He described the overall rise in distress as the result of combined pressures, including the effects of years of austerity, rather than a single cause.
The Centre for Mental Health estimates that mental ill-health costs the UK £300bn a year.
Pressure on support services
The findings come as Prof Peter Fonagy prepares to publish a government-commissioned inquiry into recent increases in diagnoses of mental illness, ADHD and autism. The inquiry is due to be published on Friday, although no calendar date is specified in the available information.
In England, the number of people in contact with NHS mental health services almost doubled from 2.64 million in 2016-17 to 4.13 million in 2024-25.
Monthly NHS referrals for mental ill-health also rose from 360,000 in April 2022 to 530,000 in July 2026, described as a 47% increase. The available figures span different periods and do not by themselves establish why referrals increased.
Tom Pollard of Mind said demand linked to anxiety, stress and worry had left NHS services struggling as more people sought support.
What the findings mean
The study suggests that mental health can be affected not only by personal circumstances but also by the wider social and economic environment. Its estimates show population-level changes after major events; they do not indicate that every individual experienced the same response.
For readers feeling overwhelmed by continuing uncertainty or distress, seeking support from a healthcare professional or an established mental health service may be appropriate. The study itself does not identify a single explanation for the UK’s wider mental health trends.
AI tools were used to assist with the preparation of this article.
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